Articles

March, 2011

Jamaica has passed the first three quarterly performance tests required by the 27-month Stand-By Agreement with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) signed in January 2010. The US$1.27-billion loan is disbursed in tranches subject to meeting the conditionalities of the Agreement. To get the loan request approved and receive the first drawdown of approximately US$610-million, the government had to take “prior actions” in the form of imposing a tax package equivalent to 2% of GDP in December 2009, completing the Jamaica Debt Exchange (JDX), and selling Air Jamaica, both by January 2010.

March, 2011

 The Jamaica Debt Exchange has succeeded in slowing the rate of ‘crowding out’ private sector borrowers from financial institutions as government’s demand for funds has been reduced. However, for the JDX to achieve longterm success there must be some immediate accompanying measures including stability in monetary policy; creating an efficient market for interest rate and significant reduction in the cost of financial transactions.

March, 2011

 The Jamaica Debt Exchange (JDX) allowed the country to reduce its debt obligation by exchanging high interest government paper for lower interest paper at longer maturities. Collectively, Jamaican taxpayers have benefited from a lower debt profile and interest savings of over US$500-million in 2010. That said, Jamaican borrowers have yet to reap the benefits of a low interest rate regime. Hence the paradox – it costs the nation less than 9% per annum to borrow money from local investors, yet borrowers continue to pay upwards of 33% to borrow money from the financial sector.

March, 2011

   In his book on Jamaican theatre Errol Hill notes the existence of two kinds of ‘native’ theatre, populist and art theatre. Populist theatre, usually in the vernacular language, Patwa, caters to large audiences with comic, often bawdy content-- while English-speaking art theatre, altogether more serious in plot and outlook has lofty aspirations to uplift the moral and intellectual fibre of its audiences.

March, 2011

 If small firms are to fulfil their mandate as creators of jobs and wealth for the masses, government as well as multilateral institutions and stronger private sector institutions must adopt a coherent set of policies including managerial training and creative ways to provide collateral for loans. These will ensure increased lending to small firms while reducing risks to the banks.

June, 2010

The Jamaican Economy in a dollarised situation, using the US Dollar as the anchor currency, would adopt conditions conducive to economic stability and growth. However, fundamental change in the current arrangement may be premature at this stage.

June, 2010

Any consideration of a return to a peg by Jamaica is not an exercise in textbook abstraction nor can it be the result of a simple comparison of Jamaica and Barbados in 2010. A fuller historical comparative analysis will conclude that stronger macroeconomic results in Barbados are due to greater sustained commitment to fiscal prudence that also guaranteed the preservation of peg and parity.

June, 2010

There is now worldwide recognition of the importance of the small and medium enterprise (SME) sector as a principal contributor to the economic well-being of most nations. SMEs are often both the product and the producers of entrepreneurial creativity and, in most countries, have become progressively important pillars of economic stability. Their actual and potential contributions to innovation, economic growth, employment, and the diversification of productive endeavours are well documented. 

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June, 2010

What we are witnessing in Jamaica today is really a ‘recession within a recession.’ In the past decade Jamaica has only been able to muster a paltry 1.4 % average annual economic growth due largely to a weak macroeconomic multiplier and high levels of import in relation to GDP. Achieving higher growth rates with stability will require transforming the pool of unemployed into a productive force with an export focus; embracing innovation, quality and productivity; a renaissance of the ideas of Lewis and proponents of Plantation Economy theory; and the exploration of new ideas.

June, 2010

With the global tourist industry now emerging from one of its toughest periods in recent decades the United Nations World Tourism Organisation (UNWTO) is forecasting a 3-4% increase in international arrivals in 2010 and a 2-4% rise in the Americas region. Assuming the forecast holds and the Jamaican industry maintains the resilience shown in the past two years the industry is likely to achieve stronger visitor arrivals this year, putting it in a position to stimulate economic activity locally

June, 2010

With the world economy showing signs of recovery in the first quarter of 2010 there are indications that the global aluminium industry is beginning to rebound. However, recovery of the Jamaican industry will lag behind world trends as the alumina plants are high-cost by global standards and so are not likely to come on stream until the global economic recovery strengthens. Hence,turnaround in the medium to long-term will depend substantially on the industry switching from oil to cheaper energy sources like coal or liquid natural gas (LNG) while achieving other operational efficiencies.

June, 2010

Failed attempts at business turnaround have destroyed countless jobs and depleted substantial organizational resources in Jamaica.  Drawing from international experience and case studies of Courts Jamaica Limited and Desnoes & Geddes Limited we can identify strategies to rescue a business from losses and insolvency.

June, 2010

Edward Seaga makes a compelling case for a pegged rate, that is, “a fixed currency value accepted or legislated as non-variable. Pegged rates can last decades without change, as has been the case in the Organization of Eastern Caribbean States.”...

 

Colin Bullock argues that the “reintroduction of a peg would have to weigh the issue of capital controls” and could also mean “neutering the significant technical expertise in money and foreign exchange policy that has been developed at the Bank of Jamaica”....

June, 2010

In  the current climate in Jamaica, the involuntary exchange of bonds to lower yielding instruments caught the Jamaican financial sector and other stakeholders unprepared. This is clear evidence of the inadequacies in regulatory oversight and risk management discipline, both at the level of the financial institutions themselves and the local regulatory authorities.